The contract is awarded on a Thursday afternoon. Two suppliers. Same grade. Same CN code. A €12/ton price difference. Procurement signs off, relieved. The steel will arrive on time. The mill confirms availability. The PO is raised. The shipment is booked. Nothing feels risky. Six months later, a finance controller is staring at a number that does not reconcile. The CBAM certificate estimate is 40% higher than forecast. No one remembers the Thursday afternoon. THE MISBELIEF Mo